Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Asymptosis

Appearances can be deceiving.  Here are some scenarios that can’t be taken completely at face value:

I.              Nearing the end of the regular season in baseball, and in preparation for the World Series for 2013, it all comes down to one or two games to be won or lost by a very few teams left in the running.  One or two games …

II.            A promotional piece for a popular motivational book “212 Degrees: The Extra Degree” by Sam Parker and Mac  Anderson states the following:

At 211° water is hot. At 212°, it boils. And with boiling water, comes steam. And with steam, you can power a train. The one extra degree makes the difference. The 212° mindset inspires the extra level of effort that produces exponential results.

Only 1 (ONE) degree …

III.           The Ed Sullivan show was credited with launching a significant number of “Overnight Successes”, including the Beatles, in the mid-20th century.  A single appearance …

 But the WHOLE TRUTH is a little more complicated. 

I.      To get to that single “defining” game in the season, a baseball team must already have won more than 80 out of 150+ games during the preceding 6 month span of the regular season.  And they must have gotten progressively better during the season; during the final stretch, they will very likely face teams that have already beaten them during the regular season and have gotten better, and they will have to outplay the very best teams in both leagues to win the final World Series pennant.  

II.    To get to 211 degrees Fahrenheit (99.4 degrees Celsius), a pot of water must already have consumed 1 calorie per gram per degree Celsius.  But that final ONE DEGREE (or 0.6!) rise in temperature to boil water and create steam comes at an extraordinarily high cost: The heat required to raise the temperature of water a SINGLE degree between the temperatures of 0 and 99 degrees Celsius (210.2 degrees Fahrenheit) is 1 calorie per gram of water, whereas the heat required to raise the temperature of water from 99 to 100 degrees Celsius (212 degrees Fahrenheit) – and, thus, create steam – is 539 calories per gram = 539 times the amount of energy per gram per degree it cost just to get to that point!  This incredible blast is called the “heat of vaporization” – roughly equivalent to sending molecular rockets into space. 

III.   Malcolm Gladwell underscores the reality behind “Overnight Successes” in his book “Outliers”, pointing out that breaking into the mainstream as a top level performer requires no less than 10,000 hours of time investment in progressive development.  

One can add to these examples the fabrication and filling of a dam for production of hydroelectric power.  No power gets generated until the dam is high enough for gravity-fed water to run the generators and until the water fills the reservoir behind the dam.  Hoover Dam, located on the Colorado River between Nevada and Arizona, took 5 years to build.  Then it took an additional 20 months to fill Lake Mead behind the dam to a level capable of producing power.  Of no small consequence, a total of 112 men died during construction of the dam. 

So we need to understand that much of life is a stretch beyond mere stepping stones on level ground.  And, generally, the higher you go, the tougher it gets.  Exponential results require exponential energy and are not won by simple degrees.  This is represented graphically by the asymptotic curve below, which shows that the closer one gets to a Goal, the more energy one must expend to make tangible progress. 


The good news is that if we keep piling up capacities and consistently overcoming the associated challenges, we can eventually start generating the power required to move us ahead.  Anyone who ever thought or said it would be easy or that significant sacrifices would not be required is either living under a rock or selling snake oil.  Quartermaster

“The heights which great men reached and kept
Were not attained by sudden flight,
But they, while their companions slept*,
Were toiling upward in the night.”
 
Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
“The Ladder of St. Augustine”

*… alternatively, were watching television, Tweeting, Twittering, Texting, playing video games …

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